Is Dubai World's default more like Lehman Brothers or more like CIT? Lehman Brother's bankruptcy sent shocks through the financial world, while CIT's bankruptcy hardly caused a ripple.
The connections between world financial markets are so complicated that nobody knows the answer and one can only hazard a guess. The size of the default is much smaller than Lehman Brothers, but this is more of a surprise than CIT was.
In and of itself the Dubai World default is not a disaster. However, the jitters seem to be spreading to Greece. It is the contagion effect that is worrying. This could be nothing or it could be a black swan. We will soon find out.