The Money Quote

  • The money quote from Target's conference call "In our view, sell-side analysts are somewhat more optimistic across most of our industry than we believe is warranted in light of the harsh realities of the current environment."
  • Some readers have asked about shorting retail stocks in the past few months. Even though I believe retail will be one of the worst sectors in the years to come, I was against shorting them because retail stocks are typically strong this time of the year. The strong seasonality weakens after Thanksgiving and turns negative after Christmas.
  • Is retail ever a good business? The retailers that were around thirty years ago are mostly gone or have restructured through bankruptcy and the same will likely be true thirty years from now.
  • When will the terrible economic situation just be bad news? Without all this reverse psychology, that if everyone knows its bad than its really good.

6 comments:

PJ said...

"Black Friday" sales are coming earlier than ever, many pre-Thanksgiving, and retail stocks will react very quickly to poor sales this cycle. If seasonality is what's holding you up, I wouldn't wait.

My thinking is that the health care cloture vote, scheduled for Friday but may come late Thursday night, will mark the top. But weak sectors like retail might head down early.

nicasurfer said...

The insiders sure are selling today also

Tsachy Mishal said...

Scroll down to markets diary
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/page/marketsdata.html

Tsachy Mishal said...

Breadth is closing pretty negative today as most stocks on my screen are red. A small number of stocks are carrying the market.

nicasurfer said...

Did you see the REITS today very negative

Tsachy Mishal said...

was there a reason?