ECRI Has Great PR

I have been hearing a lot recently about the leading indicators from the ECRI recently as if it is the holy grail. I found this article from Mish very enlightening. It seems the best thing about the ECRI and their leading indicators might be their PR.


Anonymous said...

We're still going around 20 points higher. Nuff said

Chaos! said...

I plot there data on a chart and don't listen to what they say. It's a very useful big picture tool. The data, not the commentary.
I'm building shorts here. Hard to see any better news coming. If it does that'll be an opportunity.. Rallies expire on good news.
Hard to see them more than 1% higher.

Tsachy Mishal said...

What do you think about the circles that Mish made showing false signals?

Chaos! said...

I overlay a chart of their data atop a weekly S+P chart and look for divergences and confirmations. I find it helpful.
I'm not concerned about whether we're in an official "recession" or not. More interested in the the trend of the data and how it relates to equity index trends.
I find it keeps me from being run over trading with or against the trend.
As an example It made a nice turn ahead of and stronger than the market this spring. Currently it's on a moonshot which has made me temper my bearishness.I still like the short trade but I try to be patient and await the extremes.