Political Roulette

  • While it is certainly admirable that the market has had every reason to fall apart today and thus far has not, that is not reason alone to invest. Not with my money.
  • It is now possible to borrow SPY. The other day, when the SPY was higher, I tried to short it but could not borrow it. Interesting?
  • GS, JPM and COF have raised a combined 16 billion dollars this week. In the long term that is a positive as our banking system needs more capital. In the short term that is 16 billion less to fuel a rally.
  • Credit markets are in disarray as a lot of debt got wiped out today. There are certainly casualties. The question is who?
  • If the best of breed want to raise capital, what do you think lesser banks want to do? That should cap any rally.
  • Another reason the sidelines look nice to me is that so much has to do with politics and that is not my expertise.
  • My best guess is that the market will not be able to turn around today without a package announced. No skin in the game though.
  • My posts will be sparse today as I am on the road.

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